The Met Office says the chances of the remains of Hurricane Bertha hitting the UK are increasing, with the south coast most likely to be affected by very strong winds and large waves.
The Met’s severe weather warning is still in place, but the chief forecaster says there is “increasing confidence” we will be affected.
The Met Office said today there was a 60-0% chance of Bertha hitting the south coast.
“The situation is still very uncertain,” said Laura Young, a Met Office spokeswoman. “[The storm] is coming in our general direction, and one of the tracks we’re looking at is that it comes across the South Downs, through the Wash and out through the east coast into the North Sea.”
The Chief Forecaster’s assessment says: “The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the mid-Atlantic on Friday morning, are now changing to attain the characteristics of a mid-latitude depression, albeit with very warm air wrapped up within it.
“This feature looks to move towards the UK before deepening rapidly on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
“The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical feature is a particularly hard one to forecast but there is increasing confidence that this feature will affect the UK, though with very large uncertainty remaining over the track and intensity.
There is the potential for rainfall totals of more than 50 mm in places and coastal gusts of over 60 mph, along with large waves.
“The locations affected are very dependent on the track of the low but the heaviest rainfall is thought most likely around and to the northwest of the low centre whilst the strongest winds are most likely around the southern flank of the low.”
The warning itself says: “There is the potential for severe weather over much of the UK during Sunday as a depression tracks over, or close to, the UK.
“There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast but the public should be aware of the risk of flooding due to heavy rain as well as very strong winds and large waves, particularly on the southern side of the depression. Given the unseasonable nature of the weather this could be sufficient to disrupt transport and make outdoor activities dangerous.
“This is a particularly volatile situation, and this alert is likely to be updated as the event approaches. The public are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and alerts through the weekend.”