More than 600 reception class spaces are likely to go unfilled in 2024, according to Brighton and Hove City Council figures.
The situation is expected to worsen in 2025, with 770 fewer children predicted to start in reception at primary and infant schools.
Having unfilled spaces puts pressure on school budgets at a time where many are already struggling with cuts and soaring inflation.
Councillors on the Children, Young People and Skills Committee are asked to approve consultations to reduce admission numbers at three city schools for 2024-25.
But this will only reduce numbers across the city by 90 places, leaving hundreds more unfilled.
A report going before the committee on Monday, 7 November, says the council had asked the city’s largest and most popular schools to reduce their reception admissions.
This policy was adopted earlier this year following an outcry when the council asked six smaller schools – most of which are undersubscribed – to reduce their intake from 2023.
Following parents’ petitions and campaigns, the council cancelled its plans to cut any school admissions for next year.
Now, after the council spoke to other schools, the only ones whose governors say they will support plans to reduce places for the following year are Downs Infant School, Hertford Infant School and Hove Junior School (Holland Road). These plans will now go out to consultation.
The report said: “The council has strongly urged all large and popular schools to play their part in the city’s response and to consider reducing their PANs (published admission numbers) but accepts that the School Admissions Code (and the difficulty in defending objections to previous proposals) undermines the likelihood of a successful outcome where schools oppose the reduction.
“All schools with more than one form of entry have received high-level representation from the council impressing upon them the need to consider their role in a ‘family of schools’ response.”
If the consultation is successful, Downs Infant School in Ditchling Road will reduce its admissions from 120 to 90.
In 2021 Downs was one of four larger schools that successfully appealed to the Schools Adjudicator to maintain their intakes for September 2022 after the council ruled it needed to reduce to three-form entry or 90 pupils, following a consultation in 2020.
This year Downs accepted 100 youngsters into reception during the application process.
Hertford Infant School in Hertford Road, Hollingdean, would be reduced to a one-form intake of 30 pupils.
This year the school agreed to reduce its admissions to 30 pupils, from 60, for one year after 26 youngsters were allocated reception places in reception.
In 2021, 36 pupils received offers to start in reception and 44 youngsters were offered places at the school in 2020.
Hove Junior School (Holland Road site) would see its numbers reduced from 96 to 64 pupils.
The move is in line with changes to the Hove Infant School (Connaught Road) admissions from September 2021, when the infant school reduced its admissions to 60.
In January, the infants moved onto the same site as the juniors in Holland Road but maintained a separate identity.
If the proposed reductions go ahead, the surplus places will be reduced from 620 to 560 in 2024 and from 770 to 710 in 2025.
The report said the council is in discussions with the city’s three or more form-entry schools to reduce admissions.
The council has no control over the intake for academies or voluntary-aided schools.
Both the Church of England Diocese of Chichester and the Roman Catholic Diocese of Arundel and Brighton have been asked to consider “the role they have in managing the supply of school places in the coming years”.
The government funds schools through the Dedicated Schools Grant. Much of the funding is based on a “per pupil basis” to cover staff costs.
The report said: “If schools don’t have enough pupils attending or suffer from fluctuating numbers, they may not be able to operate in a financially efficient way and risk entering a budget deficit. If the number of surplus places in the city is not addressed, some schools could face significant financial issues that will impact on their ability to sustain their school improvement journey.
“Where schools do not take appropriate action to adjust their expenditure in line with changes in revenue, they risk incurring a deficit budget which has an implication for the school and the council’s own budget.”
The Children, Young People and Skills Committee is due to meet at 4pm on Monday (7 November) at Hove Town Hall. The meeting is scheduled to be webcast on the council’s website.
